Monday, March 22, 2010

Mary Jo in Wonderland

In the aftermath of a healthcare reform demonstration held outside her office last week Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy stated, "Hearing the voices of my constituents, and not Washington insiders, is crucial to my decision making process." Congresswoman Kilroy heard our voices. She knew what we wanted her to do. And then… she listened to Nancy Pelosi and went with the Washington insiders.

It’s
hardly surprising she’d betray us. Congresswoman Kilroy sides with Nancy Pelosi 99% of the time.

"I'm encourage that by passing [the healthcare bill we'll reduce the deficit by $100 billion over the next ten years," said Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy in a statement announcing her vote.

Alice isn’t the only one in Wonderland if Ms. Kilroy actually believes this healthcare bill will reduce the deficit. Democrats—Rep. Kilroy included—base their claims on projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Projections from the CBO. The CBO isn’t infallible. They don’t have a crystal ball to see into the future. The numbers they produce are estimates, and government estimates have been wrong before.

Let’s take a look at the history: In 1966 the cost of Medicare, a massive new government program much like Obamacare, was about $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee estimated that it would cost $12 billion (adjusted for inflation) by 1990. The actual cost in 1990 was $107 billion—nearly nine times the estimate!

Today’s estimates on the cost of Obamacare are based on the assumption that the Congress will do what it promises. The estimated $100 billion deficit reduction Congresswoman Kilroy is cooing about is based on the belief that Congress will, in the future, cut $523 billion dollars in Medicare spending. If Congress fails to make those cuts, the deficit will go up by $423 billion dollars.

The CBO estimates also assume that nothing drastic happens to the government’s revenue stream. The bill imposes $569.2 billion dollars in new taxes on private citizens as well as $52 billion dollars in new taxes on employers who already can’t afford to provide their employees healthcare. Employment is already hovering near 10% and the economic situation is such that businesses, faced with economic uncertainty, are scared to make new hires. Obamacare will kill job growth in the womb with these new taxes. As job growth is further arrested an increasing number of people will remain unemployed and need government subsidized health care (read as: more costs + less revenue = high deficit).

In the Wonderland Mary Jo Kilroy strolls through saying a massive government spending program will reduce the deficit and raising taxes will creates jobs might make it so. In the real world—the world where all of her constituents reside—a world with an ultra-weak economy, soaring unemployment, and an ever-deepening national debt we know that’s simply not true. In voting for this legislation Mary Jo Kilroy has once again demonstrated her worthiness of the moniker Mary Jo Killjobs.